Prime Big Deal Days vs Black Friday

Amazon’s Fall Prime Day (aka Big Deal Days) is about to start. On October 10-11, you’ll find deals on every corner of Amazon, including savings on Apple products. Everything from MacBooks to iPads will be discounted, and you might be left to wonder if it’s the right time to buy or if you should wait for Black Friday, which is right around the corner.

Read more: Amazon October Prime Day 2023: great deals you can already shop

Today, we will look at Apple device prices from Black Friday 2022 and the most recent Prime Day to see if there’s a noticeable difference in prices. Will costs be lower during Fall Prime Day or Black Friday? We can’t tell the future, but historical data can guide us.

Prime Day vs Black Friday: Historical price data

First, we looked at the price data for a 2020 MacBook Air Laptop with the M1 chip, as it’s been around long enough to have some price history. On Black Friday, Amazon had the laptop for $800. On Prime Day 2023 (which is about eight months later in July, making the laptop quite a bit longer in the tooth), it went down to $750, which is where it has remained (with a couple of spikes to over $800 here and there). In this case, it’s difficult to say whether it was Prime Day or the laptop’s age (and the release of the M2 MacBook Air) that caused the larger price drop. However, if it drops to $700 or less for Bid Deal Days, it’s time to buy.

Turning to the iPad Air (5th generation), we see a similar price pattern. It hit around $520 around Black Friday and then saw a price drop to $500 around January 1, 2023, and it has stayed there. It’s never dropped to less than $500, so if you find it for less on Prime Day, it’s worth getting.

Apple / Pocket-lint

Apple iPad Air (5th Gen.)

$500 $600 Save $100

The iPad Air is the best iPad for most people, and if it goes on sale for Prime Day, it’s a great time to buy.

If we look at the Apple Watch SE (2nd generation), we see a sharp price drop to $220 on Black Friday, followed by a series of drops and hikes between $220 and $250 (it’s currently selling for its full $250 price, presumably to prepare for a Prime Day deal, as it doesn’t look like much of a savings if it goes from $220 to $219). Here, the difference between Black Friday and Prime Day is nonexistent.

Apple/ Pocket-lint

Apple Watch SE (2022)

$220 $250 Save $30

Apple’s entry-level watch is an absolute star, with excellent features and top-notch fitness tracking at a very reasonable price.

The pattern seems to continue through other Apple devices, with most being the same or slightly cheaper on Prime Day. Based purely on price history, there is no clear answer regarding which day is better to buy Apple products. It’s even less predictable because we typically have Prime Day in July and Black Friday in November. Still, Amazon threw us a curveball by offering an early-October version of Prime Day, so we don’t have any previous October events to compare to.

Prime Day vs Black Friday: Other factors to consider

Perhaps more important than Prime Day and Black Friday is where the Apple product you want to buy is in its life cycle. If it just came out, and this is its first shopping holiday, now is the time to buy if you can get any discount. If it’s been around longer, prices between now and November shouldn’t change much, so you can safely buy whenever your budget allows.

Another thing to consider is whether you have Amazon Prime. Big Deal Days (and other Prime Day events) tend to hide the best deals behind a Prime subscription. If you don’t have one, and you’re not eligible for a free trial, you’ll want to wait until Black Friday because every other retailer will be offering their smattering of Apple deals that don’t require a subscription.

Prime Day vs Black Friday: Is there a right time?

The right time to buy Apple products on sale is when the discount puts the product you want into the budget range with which you’re comfortable. If you’re in the market for a $700 laptop and Apple drops the MacBook Air to $700, that’s the time to buy. Apple products don’t tend to see massive discounts like other products, so if you see something listed for a historically low price (which we will tell you about during our Prime Big Deal Days/Prime Day coverage), you should snap it up.

If your budget doesn’t allow, we expect similar deals to be available on Black Friday, though they may not be on all the same products. Again, the time to buy Apple products is when they’re discounted, even if only by a little, and when you can afford them.